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News| GlobalMarketTrends|2022W36-37 | 2022-10-17 |
| 文章来源：由「百度新聞」平台非商業用途取用"https://new.qq.com/omn/20220919/20220919A078H400.html" GfK全球市場動態資訊欄目，分享行業最新趨勢與GfK獨家見解，精準掌握市場信息，搶先應對國際市場變化。歐洲市場l德國：肉類產品消費量急劇下降受到肉類食品價格上漲的影響，德國消費者肉類消費量明顯減少。GfK數據顯示，今年7月肉類和香腸產品零售量同比下降了8%，1~7月肉類相關產品的銷量同比下降了11.5%。相比之下，今年7月份面包和烘焙產品的銷量同比僅下降了6%，新鮮蔬菜類產品銷量同比僅下降了2%。l德國：時尚消費持續萎縮7月份德國消費者服裝和鞋類支出同比降幅達到1.5%，6月份這一數值為17.2%。德國消費者線下購物的次數增加，網購比例的下降趨勢越來越明顯。然而，GfK時尚消費報告也顯示，消費者在線下購物的支出明顯少于去年。l德國：消費者更傾向于購買價格實惠的有機產品盡管德國對有機產品的需求持續保持高位，但德國消費者更偏好在自有品牌店或折扣店購買有機產品。GfK消費者行為專家HannaKehl解釋道，剛開始德國消費者在有機超市的購買量逐漸減少，去折扣店的次數逐漸增多，之后他們會轉而去更便宜的商店購買自有品牌產品。l德國：能源危機給德國消費市場持續增壓盡管德國出臺了能源折扣、廉價公共交通票等臨時救濟措施，但通貨膨脹率仍再次大幅上升。GfK數據顯示，大多數消費者信心指數穩定在較低水平。GfK消費專家RolfBürkl表示，消費者對未來幾個月能源成本上升的擔憂進一步給消費環境增壓，出于此擔憂，消費者會減少其他消費項的支出。l德國：自有品牌制造商在面對通貨膨脹時選擇大幅提價最近，Edeka、Rewe和Rossman等零售商紛紛表示，他們由于品牌制造商抬高價格而成為通貨膨脹的受害者。同時自有品牌產品價格也明顯走高，GfK數據顯示，自有品牌的價格同比上漲幅度明顯更大。l德國：TCG市場今年開局良好，發展前景喜憂參半根據GfK的市場分析，2022年上半年，德國整體科技消費品（TCG）市場實現了不到2%的小幅同比增長，銷售額規模達到355億歐元，然而，上半年TCG市場增長依然疲軟。GfK預計2022年全年TCG市場銷售額將下降，但當前的TCG市場規模已是疫情以來的最高水平。l法國：學習用品價格漲幅低于通貨膨脹率今年7月，法國學習用品的價格同比漲幅低于6%的總通貨膨脹率。根據GfK為文具和辦公用品制造商協會（AIPB）研究的結果，大型零售店的同比漲幅為2.9%，專賣店的同比漲幅為3.8%。GfK高級營銷顧問CaroleBeyly指出，零售與專賣店銷售額的增長并不意味著所有產品系列銷量的增加，營銷傳播經理MagaliSaint-Laurent指出，由于原材料價格和投資成本上漲，制造商的成本也在不斷上升。l英國：通貨膨脹引發肉類產品消費量的減少隨著英國食品價格的持續上漲，英國的肉類產品消費量有所下降。截至8月7日的12周內，牛肉銷量下降了8.3%，價格上漲了8.8%。GfK快消品全球洞察總監LennekeSchils認為，雖然英國過去也出現過類似的食品通脹情況，但當時總通脹率較低，這就意味著整體來說消費者目前面臨著更大的生活壓力。l奧地利：上半年電視和電腦需求萎縮，但高端化產品仍有很大市場增量奧地利科技消費品（TCG）市場規模在今年上半年萎縮了4%，達到29億歐元，線上渠道銷售額規模占比也從32%下降到27%。在市場需求走低的背景下，部分消費群體仍繼續為高品質產品支付更高的價格，如帶語音控制的洗衣機或掃地機器人。GfK科技消費品專家AlexanderDehmel表示，對零售商和制造商來說，復雜的市場環境為其識別增長品類與目標消費者帶來一定挑戰。l瑞士：售賣園藝產品的大型DIY商場保持穩健增長趨勢對于擁有園藝產品售賣中心的大型DIY商場來說，2021年是發展向好的一年，總銷售額同比增長5.8%，達到39.2億瑞士法郎。GfK瑞士的市場數據顯示，DIY、建筑和園藝貿易協會BHB的銷售額數據反映出該行業在第一季度實現了顯著增長。l荷蘭：食品價格彈性模型能有效預測其市場波動在過去四年中，GfK一直在研究部分食品的價格彈性。其中最典型的例子是新鮮馬鈴薯的研究，其“價格彈性”為-20%，這意味著價格上漲10%，需求僅下降2%。因此，GfK的統計模型預測，考慮到目前肉類產品的價格上漲，其銷售量將下降7%。l西班牙：辦公IT零售市場穩中微降，高端市場表現優異GfK最新報告顯示，今年上半年IT辦公零售市場的銷售額達到592億美元，與去年同期相比下降了5%。值得注意的是，過去兩年受疫情期間居家辦公的影響，該行業一直在蓬勃發展。然而，高端細分市場的表現優于IT辦公零售市場的其他類別。l西班牙：TCG市場在實現兩年增長后出現萎縮與去年同期相比，2022年上半年全球科技消費品（TCG）市值與去年相比下降了5.5%，達到4130億美元。GfK預測，2022年全年的銷售額也將出現類似的同比下降。然而，全球TCG市場銷售額仍高于疫情前水平。GfKTCG行業專家NevinFrancis指出，“傳統線下零售商重新獲得了市場份額，而線上銷售市場在過去五年中首次失去了部分市場份額。”l西班牙：圖書出版業在通貨膨脹背景下仍保持增長GfK市場情報負責人IgnacioLópez在巴塞羅那的Edita論壇上的首次報告顯示，雖然面對高通貨膨脹率，但西班牙國內出版業可能會在年底實現1%的同比增長。López強調，目前通貨膨脹還沒有對圖書出版業的均價產生影響，漫畫以銷售額同比增長25%的速度成為圖書出版行業內增長最快的品類。l西班牙：近半西班牙年輕人對科技電子產品有很大依賴性根據GfK一項最新研究，15~19歲的西班牙青少年對電子產品表現出很高的依賴性，44%的人表示無法脫離電子產品生活。總體而言，27%的西班牙人難以停止使用科技電子產品。這一數據與全球范圍的調查結果相似。GfK發現，西班牙的男性和女性都受到相同程度的影響。美洲市場l美國：受內外部刺激，寵物市場成為焦點受到線上市場繁榮和寵物用品零售商的全渠道營銷的刺激，寵物消費市場繼續跑贏美國其他消費市場，2021年寵物市場的銷售額同比增長了18%，達到310億美元。l秘魯：游戲本的多功能性成為消費者選擇的原因根據GfKConsumerLife研究，16%的秘魯人玩電子游戲，這一比例遠高于2021年的9%。GfK秘魯MI負責人JeanetteYa?ez解釋說，截至今年5月，筆記本電腦的增長率特別高，銷售額同比漲幅達81%。“61%的秘魯人在疫情時居家辦公，購買游戲本的消費者不僅是游戲玩家，更是需要移動辦公的用戶，并且需要其設備可以像在工作場所一樣滿足居家辦公需求。”2022W36-37GlobalMarketTrends01EuropeGermany:MeatconsumptiondeclinessharplyGermanconsumersareeatingsignificantlylessmeat,partlyduetohigherprices.InJuly,thevolumeofmeatandsausageproductssoldintheretailsectorfellby8percentcomparedtothesamemonthlastyear,GfKdatashows.ThedeclinefromJanuarytoJulycomparedtolastyearwasassteepas11.5percent.Forbreadandbakeryproducts,GfKrecordedonly6percentlessvolumeinJuly.Freshvegetablesonlydeclined2percent."DieTageszeitung"reportsonthetopic.Germany:FashionconsumptioncontinuestoshrinkacrossomnichannelSpendingonclothingandfootwearfellby1.5percentinJuly,albeitnowherenearassharplyasinJune,whereitfellby17.2percent.Incontrast,thedownwardtrendinonlineshoppingaccelerated,reports"textilwirtschaft.de".Thenumberofshoppingtripsincreased.However,consumersspentsignificantlylessontheirshoppingtripsthaninthepreviousyear,accordingtothenewGfKConsumerPanelFashionreport.Germany:ConsumersaremoreinclinedtobuyorganicproductsthataremoreaffordableAlthoughdemandfororganicproductsremainshigh,Germanconsumersarebuyingthemmorefrequentlyintheformofprivatelabelsorfromdiscounters."Atfirst,therewaslessbuyingatorganicsupermarketsandmorebuyingatdiscountstores.Thentherewastheshiftfromorganicbrand-nameproductstocheaperstorebrands,"explainsHannaKehl,consumerbehaviorexpertatGfK."SüddeutscheZeitung"reports.Germany:TheenergycrisiscontinuestoputpressureontheGermanconsumermarketDespitetemporaryreliefmeasuresinGermanysuchasthefueldiscountandacheappublictransportationticket,inflationhasrisensignificantlyagain.AccordingtoGfK,mostindicatorsofconsumersentimentarestabilizingonalowlevel.Fearsofhigherenergycostsinthecomingmonthsput"furtherpressureontheconsumerclimate,asinreturntherearefewerfinancialresourcesavailableforotherconsumption,"saysRolfBürkl,GfKconsumerexpert."wiwo.de"reportsonthetopic.Germany:Goodandgreedy"WirtschaftsWoche"discussestheself-portrayalofretailerssuchasEdeka,ReweandRossmannasvictimsofinflationduetothehighpricesdemandedbybrandmanufacturers,butnotesthatprivatelabelshavealsobecomenoticeablymoreexpensive.Insocialmediacampaigns,forinstance,retailerspointtothe"moonprices"ofthemanufacturerMars,whilethepricesofprivatelabelshaverisenmoresharplyinpercentageterms,asGfKdatashows.Germany:GfKmarketanalysis:GoodstarttotheyearwithmixedprospectsTheoverallmarketfortechnicalconsumergoodsinGermanyrecordedslightyear-on-yeargrowthoflessthantwopercenttoEUR35.5billioninthefirsthalfof2022.However,growthcontinuedtoweakenoverthecourseofthefirsthalfoftheyear.For2022asawhole,GfKsmarketresearchersexpectsalestodecline.Atpresent,marketvalueremainsabovetherecordssetinthepandemicyears."ce-markt.de"reportsonthetopic.France:Backtoschool-priceincreasesbelowinflationforsuppliesPriceincreasesforschoolsupplieswerebelowoverallinflationofover6percentinFranceinJuly.Thehikesstoodat2.9percentinlargefoodstoresand3.8percentinspecialtystores,accordingtoaGfKstudyfortheassociationofstationeryandofficemanufacturers(AIPB).GfKseniormarketingconsultantCaroleBeylynotedthattheincreasesarenotidenticaltoallproductfamilies,whilemarketingandcommunicationmanagerMagaliSaint-Laurentpointedouthighercostsformanufacturersduetorawmaterialpricehikesandplannedinvestments.Thetopiciscoveredby"midlibre.fr".UK:InflationhasledtoadeclineintheconsumptionofmeatproductsMeatconsumptiondecreasedintheUKasfoodpricescontinuetorise,reports"FarmersGuardian".Forinstance,beefsalesinthe12weekstoAugust7weredown8.3percent,whilepricesroseby8.8percent.LennekeSchils,globalinsightsdirectorforfast-movingconsumergoodsatGfK,arguesthatwhiletheUKhasseensimilarinflationratesforfoodinthepast,totalinflationwaslowerthen,meaningconsumersarefacingmoreoverallpressurenow.Austria:ThedemandforTVsandcomputersshrank,buttherewasstillalargemarketincreaseinhigh-endproductsThemarketfortechnicalconsumergoodsinAustriahasshrunkinthefirsthalfoftheyearbyfourpercenttoEUR2.9billion,reports"O?Nachrichten".Onlinerevenuesalsodroppedfrom32to27percent.Certainconsumergroups,however,continuedtopayhigherpricesforqualityproducts,suchaswashingmachineswithvoicecontrolorvacuumrobots."Thechallengeofthedifficultmarketenvironmentforretailersandmanufacturersistoidentifythegrowthsegmentsandtargetconsumerscarefully",saysAlexanderDehmel,GfKexpertfortechnicalconsumergoodsinGermanyandAustria.Switzerland:DIYmegamallswithhorticulturalcentersmaintainasolidgrowthtrendFortheSwissDIYmegastoreswithgardencenters,2021wasapositiveyear.Totalsalesroseyear-on-yearby5.8percenttoCHF3.92billion.Thesectorpostednotablegrowthinthefirstquarter,asfiguresfromtheDIY,ConstructionandGardenTradeAssociationBHB,basedonmarketdatafromtheGfKTotalStoreReportSwitzerland,show.TheNetherlands:FoodpriceelasticitymodelsareeffectiveinpredictingtheirmarketvolatilityOverthepastfouryears,GfKhasbeenstudyingthepriceelasticityofseveralfoodproducts.ThemostnotableexampleintheGfKstudyisfreshpotatoeswitha"priceelasticityratio"of-020,meaningthatfora10percentpriceincrease,demandfallsbyonly2percent.GfKsstatisticalmodelthereforepredictstherewillbea7percentdropinthevolumeofmeatproductssoldconsideringcurrentpriceincreases."foodlog.nl"reportsonthis.Spain:TheofficeITretailmarketisstableanddeclining,andthehigh-endmarketisperformingwellAccordingtoarecentGfKreport,salesintheofficeITretailmarketreachedUS$59.2billioninthefirsthalfoftheyear,whichmarksa5percentdecreasecomparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Notably,duringthelasttwoyearsthesectorhadbeenboomingduetothepandemic.Thepremiumsegment,however,isperformingbetterthanothercategories."muycanal.com"reportsonthetopic.Spain:ConsumertechnologymarketshrinksaftertwoyearsofgainsThevalueoftheglobalConsumerTechnologyGoods(TCG)marketdeclinedby5.5percenttoUS$413billioninthefirsthalfof2022,comparedtolastyear.GfKforecastsasimilardeclineinyear-on-yearsalesforthefullyear2022.However,marketvalueisstillabovepre-pandemiclevels.NevinFrancis,GfKsindustryexpertforTCG,notesthat"whilesalesbytraditionalretailersregainedmarketshare,onlinesaleslostshareforthefirsttimeinthelastfiveyears.""itreseller.es"reports.Spain:ThebookpublishingindustrycontinuestogrowagainstthebackdropofinflationAfirstpresentationbyGfKheadofmarketintelligenceIgnacioLópezattheForumEditainBarcelonashowedthatthepublishingsectorislikelytoendtheyearwithanincreaseof1percent,despitethehighinflation.Lópezstressesthat"forthemomentinflationhasnothadanimpactontheaveragepriceofthebook."Salesexceeded2019figures.Mangashaveseenthehighestincreasewithinthesector,withsalesup25percent,reports"diariocordoba.com".Spain:NearlyhalfofyoungSpaniardshaveproblemsdisconnectingfromtechnologySpanishteenagersbetweentheagesof15and19showahighrateoftechnologicaldependence,with44percentrecognizingdifficultiestodisconnect,accordingtoarecentGfKstudy.Overall,27percentofSpaniardshavedifficultiestodisconnectfromtechnologies.Thisfigureissimilartotheresultsobtainedglobally.GfKfindsthatbothmenandwomeninSpainareaffectedequally,"larioja.com"adds.02AmericasUS:Stimulatedinternallyandexternally,thepetmarkethasbecomethefocusThepetindustrycontinuestooutperformotherconsumermarketsintheUS,withsalesrising18percentin2021toreachUS$31billion,partlyduetotheonlineboomandomnichannelapproachesofpetspecialtyretailers."researchandmarkets.com"presentsarecentreportonthesector,includingdatafromanMRI-Simmonsconsumersurveyofapproximately25,000consumersthroughspring2022.Peru:TheversatilityofgamebooksisthereasonforconsumerchoiceAccordingtoGfKsConsumerLifestudy,16percentofPeruviansplayvideogames,upfromonly9percentin2021.Mobilecomputinghasseenaparticularlysharprisewithavalueincreaseof81percentasofMay,explainsJeanetteYa?ez,MILeadofGfKPeru."Householdsinthecountryhadtoacquiretechnologytoallowthemtoworkfromhome.Inmanycasestheyoptedforgamingmachinesduetotheirversatility,andthishasledtoalmostallbrandsinthemarketlaunchinggamingequipment,"RichardLira,ProductAssistantatGfKPeru,isquotedassayingby"diariocorreo.pe". 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